How It Works

This plain-language guide provides a transparent overview of our prediction methodology, and the data sources behind every prediction. It explains how our snow day calculator processes daily atmospheric data to determine the likelihood of a school closing in your specific area.

The Prediction Process

1

Daily Weather Data Retrieval

Our school closing calculator pulls hourly weather data directly from the NOAA National Weather Service API for all 40,000+ US ZIP codes, updating daily to reflect the latest atmospheric shifts.

2

5-Day Forecast Extraction

For every ZIP code, we analyze a 5-day school week window (Monday–Friday). Our snow day calculator records critical variables including minimum temperature, wind chill, snowfall totals, ice accumulation, and precipitation probability. This data allows us to project both full-day closures and early dismissal scenarios.

3

Statistical Scoring

Each weather factor is compared against local historical percentiles — calibrated separately for each month and location. For example, 3 inches of overnight snow in January in Minneapolis gets a very different closure probability than 3 inches in Atlanta in March.

4

Probability Modeling

While heavy snow is the primary reason for a snow day, we also calculate the impact of extreme cold, dangerous wind chills, and icy road conditions. Our algorithm mirrors the decision-making process of school administrators, weighing multiple simultaneous hazards before making a decision to close school on a snow day.

5

Closure vs. Early Dismissal

Our snow day calculator predicts a School Closure by evaluating overnight and morning weather data (the critical window before the school day begins), and assesses Early Dismissal probability by analyzing deteriorating conditions during active school hours.

Data Sources

  • Weather forecasts: NOAA National Weather Service — free, public hourly weather data updated multiple times a day.
  • Historical weather statistics: Aggregated climate records used to establish seasonal norms and percentiles for every US location.
  • Location data: ~40,000 US ZIP code locations matched to NWS forecast grid points.

Limitations & Disclaimers

  • Predictions are probabilistic estimates are not official school district announcements.
  • Always check your school district's official website or notification system for actual closure decisions.
  • Forecast accuracy decreases significantly beyond 3 days.
  • The model does not account for specific local district policies or decisions to have remote learning days.